New Year, New Strategy: Why 2026 is Starting with a “Quiet Opportunity”

The Big Picture

We are one week into 2026, and the mortgage market is behaving exactly how savvy buyers want it to: boringly stable.

The average 30-year fixed rate is hovering in the low-6% range (approx. 6.16% – 6.22%). While many headlines are still buzzing about the Federal Reserve’s moves from late last year, the bond market has already digested that news.

What does this mean for you? We aren’t seeing wild daily swings. This stability gives you the luxury of time—time to shop, time to compare, and time to negotiate without fear that your rate will jump 0.5% overnight.

National Market Pulse: The Great Rebalance

Before we dive into the local numbers, here is the 30,000-foot view of where the U.S. housing market stands as we kick off 2026.

As we enter the new year, the national narrative is shifting from “gridlock” to “gradual recovery.” We aren’t seeing a dramatic boom or bust; instead, we are witnessing a “Great Rebalance.” Buyers are finally gaining some leverage as inventory rebuilds, but the “lock-in effect” keeps the pace of recovery slow and steady.

• Mortgage Rates: Stabilizing in the Low 6s. Rates have settled into a narrow channel between 6.1% and 6.4%. While we aren’t seeing the sub-5% rates of the past, the volatility of 2024–2025 has faded, giving buyers the confidence to budget accurately again.
• Inventory: Up ~10% Year-Over-Year. National supply is clawing its way back. We are seeing double-digit percentage gains in active listings compared to last January. It’s not a flood, but it’s enough to stop the bidding wars in most secondary markets.
• Home Prices: Flat to Low Growth (+1.5%). Nationally, price appreciation has cooled significantly. We are looking at a “soft landing” where prices are roughly flat or growing just slightly below the rate of inflation. This is a crucial breather for affordability.
• The Vibe: “Cautious Optimism.” The panic buying is gone. The current market favors the patient. Buyers are taking their time, negotiating repairs, and refusing to overpay.

The Takeaway: The national market is no longer sprinting; it’s jogging. This slowing national momentum is setting the stage for specific regional corrections—which brings us to what we are seeing right here in Florida.

Florida Market Pulse

The “Season” is officially here, but it looks different than the frenzy of a few years ago.

• Inventory is Up: Across most of Florida (especially Southwest and South Florida), we have more homes for sale than we’ve seen in two years.
• Sellers are Listening: Days-on-market are ticking up. This means sellers who were stubborn in 2025 are now more open to concessions (paying your closing costs) or rate buydowns to get the deal done.

Legislative Watch: The Florida legislative session kicks off next week (Jan 13). We are closely watching several proposals regarding property tax relief—specifically for seniors and homeowners carrying property insurance. While nothing is law yet, the conversation in Tallahassee is shifting toward affordability, which is a good sign for the long-term health of our market.

The Strategy for January

Don’t wait for spring. Spring brings more inventory, but it also brings more competition. Right now, you have a unique window:

1. Less Competition: Many buyers are still waking up from the holidays.
2. Motivated Sellers: Listings that sat through December are ready to make a deal.
3. Rate Buydowns: Instead of waiting for rates to drop naturally, use your negotiation power to force them down. Ask sellers to pay for a “2-1 Buydown,” which could drop your interest rate by 2% for the first year.

Bottom Line

2026 is starting with a balanced, healthy beat. If you are ready to buy, the conditions are fair. If you are waiting for a crash, you might be waiting a long time.

Smart moves are made when the market is quiet.

About the Author

Clay Edmonds is the Corporate Educator and Senior Loan Officer at Complete Mortgage LLC in Hollywood, Florida. He created MortgageSimplified.net and serves as its chief content creator with the purpose of simplifying the mortgage financing process so consumers and real estate professionals can make better, more informed mortgage decisions.